Week 9 · Thursday, Nov 5 · 8:15 pm ET · M&T Bank Stadium
TBD referee · 4 rest days (JAX) / 4 (BAL)
Model
Projected JAX 24.9 – BAL 25.4
margin +0.5 · total 50.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| JAX | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 1st | Power rating | 3rd +5.5 |
| +3.8 3rd | Offense rating | 6th +2.6 |
| +2.7 7th | Defense rating | 6th +2.9 |
| +0.310 3rd | Offense EPA/play | 6th +0.209 |
| −0.206 7th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 6th −0.225 |
| 59.3% 1st | Offense success rate | 12th 46.9% |
| 43.1% 16th | Defense success rate allowed | 13th 42.6% |
| +0.731 1st | Pass EPA/dropback | 7th +0.316 |
| −0.257 5th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 3rd −0.410 |
| −0.053 13th | Rush EPA/carry | 6th +0.102 |
| −0.119 12th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 28th +0.116 |
| 16.7% 1st | Explosive play rate | 8th 10.9% |
| 7.8% 15th | Explosive rate allowed | 29th 13.0% |
| 55.6% 8th | 3rd-down conversion | 17th 37.5% |
| 12.5% 1st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 11th 30.0% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 13th 75.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 12.5% 11th | Pressure rate allowed | 8th 10.3% |
| 30.0% 2nd | Pressure rate | 4th 26.5% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 22.2% 3rd | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 34.0 6th | Points per game | 2nd 41.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 14th 23.0 |
| −4.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.8% |
| 29.4 14th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 19th 30.8 |
| +0.310 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.209 |
| −0.206 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.225 |
| +3.0 15th | Special teams EPA | 6th +4.8 |
JAX offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for JAX against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
JAXBAL D
BAL offense vs JAX defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for JAX. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALJAX D