Week 9 · Sunday, Nov 8 · 8:20 pm ET · Soldier Field
TBD referee · 7 rest days (TB) / 6 (CHI)
Model
Projected TB 24.4 – CHI 29.9
margin +5.5 · total 54.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| TB | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.0 19th | Power rating | 8th +2.9 |
| −1.1 21st | Offense rating | 2nd +4.5 |
| +0.0 15th | Defense rating | 24th −1.6 |
| −0.081 21st | Offense EPA/play | 2nd +0.361 |
| +0.001 15th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 24th +0.130 |
| 51.8% 5th | Offense success rate | 4th 53.3% |
| 47.6% 23rd | Defense success rate allowed | 22nd 47.1% |
| −0.168 25th | Pass EPA/dropback | 4th +0.551 |
| −0.030 12th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 24th +0.242 |
| +0.118 4th | Rush EPA/carry | 2nd +0.143 |
| +0.050 25th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 14th −0.106 |
| 5.4% 26th | Explosive play rate | 5th 12.0% |
| 11.1% 26th | Explosive rate allowed | 27th 11.8% |
| 50.0% 9th | 3rd-down conversion | 3rd 71.4% |
| 57.1% 27th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 21st 44.4% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 16.7% 22nd | Pressure rate allowed | 5th 7.9% |
| 16.2% 12th | Pressure rate | 23rd 11.6% |
| 40.0% 32nd | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 10.0% 18th | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 27.0 13th | Points per game | 1st 59.0 |
| 33.0 26th | Points allowed per game | 29th 37.0 |
| +2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −1.7% |
| 29.8 15th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 12th 28.6 |
| −0.081 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.361 |
| +0.001 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.130 |
| +5.2 4th | Special teams EPA | 1st +6.4 |
TB offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBCHI D
CHI offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHITB D