Week 9 · Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 pm ET · Caesars Superdome (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CLE) / 14 (NO)
Model
Projected CLE 20.9 – NO 29.5
margin +8.6 · total 50.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CLE | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| −6.5 32nd | Power rating | 15th +0.6 |
| −2.7 26th | Offense rating | 17th +0.2 |
| −3.8 30th | Defense rating | 14th +0.4 |
| −0.206 26th | Offense EPA/play | 17th +0.019 |
| +0.310 30th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 14th −0.027 |
| 43.1% 17th | Offense success rate | 15th 43.8% |
| 59.3% 32nd | Defense success rate allowed | 20th 45.5% |
| −0.257 28th | Pass EPA/dropback | 17th +0.052 |
| +0.731 32nd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 14th +0.012 |
| −0.119 21st | Rush EPA/carry | 15th −0.075 |
| −0.053 20th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 19th −0.072 |
| 7.8% 18th | Explosive play rate | 16th 9.0% |
| 16.7% 32nd | Explosive rate allowed | 22nd 10.4% |
| 12.5% 32nd | 3rd-down conversion | 10th 47.1% |
| 55.6% 25th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 17th 38.5% |
| 0.0% 30th | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 30.0% 31st | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 12.5% 22nd | Pressure rate | 9th 19.5% |
| 22.2% 30th | Turnover rate | 29th 21.4% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 24th 6.7% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 11th 30.0 |
| 34.0 27th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −9.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +4.1% |
| 38.8 32nd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 2nd 21.6 |
| −0.206 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.019 |
| +0.310 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.027 |
| +6.1 2nd | Special teams EPA | 29th −2.4 |
CLE offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for CLE against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CLENO D
NO offense vs CLE defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for CLE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOCLE D