Week 12 · Monday, Nov 30 · 8:15 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium
TBD referee · 8 rest days (CAR) / 8 (TB)
Model
Projected CAR 25.5 – TB 28.9
margin +3.4 · total 54.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CAR | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.9 25th | Power rating | 19th −1.0 |
| +1.6 9th | Offense rating | 21st −1.1 |
| −4.5 31st | Defense rating | 15th +0.0 |
| +0.130 9th | Offense EPA/play | 21st −0.081 |
| +0.361 31st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 15th +0.001 |
| 47.1% 11th | Offense success rate | 5th 51.8% |
| 53.3% 29th | Defense success rate allowed | 23rd 47.6% |
| +0.242 9th | Pass EPA/dropback | 25th −0.168 |
| +0.551 29th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 12th −0.030 |
| −0.106 19th | Rush EPA/carry | 4th +0.118 |
| +0.143 31st | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 25th +0.050 |
| 11.8% 6th | Explosive play rate | 26th 5.4% |
| 12.0% 28th | Explosive rate allowed | 26th 11.1% |
| 44.4% 12th | 3rd-down conversion | 9th 50.0% |
| 71.4% 30th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 27th 57.1% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 11.6% 10th | Pressure rate allowed | 22nd 16.7% |
| 7.9% 28th | Pressure rate | 12th 16.2% |
| 15.4% 19th | Turnover rate | 32nd 40.0% |
| 7.1% 22nd | Takeaway rate | 18th 10.0% |
| 37.0 4th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 59.0 32nd | Points allowed per game | 26th 33.0 |
| +3.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.7% |
| 24.7 4th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 15th 29.8 |
| +0.130 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| +0.361 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| −0.5 24th | Special teams EPA | 4th +5.2 |
CAR offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for CAR against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CARTB D
TB offense vs CAR defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for CAR. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBCAR D