Week 12 · Sunday, Nov 29 · 1:00 pm ET · Reliant Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (BAL) / 10 (HOU)
Model
Projected BAL 30.0 – HOU 23.4
margin −6.6 · total 53.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BAL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 3rd | Power rating | 23rd −2.6 |
| +2.6 6th | Offense rating | 13th +0.8 |
| +2.9 6th | Defense rating | 29th −3.4 |
| +0.209 6th | Offense EPA/play | 13th +0.071 |
| −0.225 6th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 29th +0.278 |
| 46.9% 12th | Offense success rate | 9th 48.1% |
| 42.6% 13th | Defense success rate allowed | 12th 41.1% |
| +0.316 7th | Pass EPA/dropback | 16th +0.098 |
| −0.410 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 30th +0.556 |
| +0.102 6th | Rush EPA/carry | 9th +0.030 |
| +0.116 28th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 5th −0.263 |
| 10.9% 8th | Explosive play rate | 17th 8.9% |
| 13.0% 29th | Explosive rate allowed | 31st 14.3% |
| 37.5% 17th | 3rd-down conversion | 13th 43.8% |
| 30.0% 11th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 75.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 10.3% 8th | Pressure rate allowed | 26th 21.4% |
| 26.5% 4th | Pressure rate | 26th 9.1% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 41.0 2nd | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 23.0 14th | Points allowed per game | 28th 36.0 |
| −5.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.8% |
| 30.8 19th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 21st 31.1 |
| +0.209 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| −0.225 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| +4.8 6th | Special teams EPA | 9th +4.3 |
BAL offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALHOU D
HOU offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUBAL D