Week 12 · Sunday, Nov 29 · 4:05 pm ET · EverBank Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (TEN) / 7 (JAX)
Model
Projected TEN 19.5 – JAX 30.8
margin +11.4 · total 50.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| TEN | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.4 27th | Power rating | 1st +6.5 |
| −1.8 23rd | Offense rating | 3rd +3.8 |
| −1.5 23rd | Defense rating | 7th +2.7 |
| −0.141 23rd | Offense EPA/play | 3rd +0.310 |
| +0.127 23rd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 7th −0.206 |
| 44.0% 14th | Offense success rate | 1st 59.3% |
| 48.4% 26th | Defense success rate allowed | 16th 43.1% |
| −0.152 24th | Pass EPA/dropback | 1st +0.731 |
| +0.338 27th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 5th −0.257 |
| −0.096 17th | Rush EPA/carry | 13th −0.053 |
| −0.038 23rd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 12th −0.119 |
| 4.0% 28th | Explosive play rate | 1st 16.7% |
| 10.9% 24th | Explosive rate allowed | 15th 7.8% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 8th 55.6% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 1st 12.5% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 66.7% 14th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 15.4% 19th | Pressure rate allowed | 11th 12.5% |
| 3.9% 32nd | Pressure rate | 2nd 30.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 3rd 22.2% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 6th 34.0 |
| 23.0 14th | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| +5.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.3% |
| 27.3 7th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 14th 29.4 |
| −0.141 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.310 |
| +0.127 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.206 |
| −5.1 32nd | Special teams EPA | 15th +3.0 |
TEN offense vs JAX defense
Offense percentiles for TEN against the matching defensive percentiles for JAX. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TENJAX D
JAX offense vs TEN defense
Offense percentiles for JAX against the matching defensive percentiles for TEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
JAXTEN D