Week 12 · Sunday, Nov 29 · 1:00 pm ET · U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
TBD referee · 14 rest days (ATL) / 7 (MIN)
Model
Projected ATL 17.0 – MIN 23.1
margin +6.0 · total 40.1
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| ATL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.3 21st | Power rating | 7th +3.2 |
| −4.6 31st | Offense rating | 12th +0.8 |
| +3.2 3rd | Defense rating | 8th +2.4 |
| −0.358 31st | Offense EPA/play | 12th +0.071 |
| −0.252 3rd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 8th −0.181 |
| 36.7% 28th | Offense success rate | 26th 38.7% |
| 33.9% 1st | Defense success rate allowed | 6th 38.2% |
| −0.638 32nd | Pass EPA/dropback | 10th +0.233 |
| −0.251 6th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 11th −0.059 |
| −0.113 20th | Rush EPA/carry | 22nd −0.125 |
| −0.252 6th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 2nd −0.438 |
| 10.0% 13th | Explosive play rate | 29th 3.2% |
| 6.2% 11th | Explosive rate allowed | 30th 13.2% |
| 16.7% 30th | 3rd-down conversion | 5th 57.1% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| – – | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 50.0% 9th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 3rd 25.0% |
| 19.2% 23rd | Pressure rate allowed | 20th 16.1% |
| 14.0% 20th | Pressure rate | 1st 32.6% |
| 15.4% 19th | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 7.1% 22nd | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 13.0 25th | Points per game | 3rd 39.0 |
| 20.0 10th | Points allowed per game | 12th 22.0 |
| −17.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – −8.0% |
| 30.7 18th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 26th 32.7 |
| −0.358 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| −0.252 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.181 |
| −2.3 28th | Special teams EPA | 14th +3.0 |
ATL offense vs MIN defense
Offense percentiles for ATL against the matching defensive percentiles for MIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ATLMIN D
MIN offense vs ATL defense
Offense percentiles for MIN against the matching defensive percentiles for ATL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MINATL D