Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 1:00 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (PIT) / 10 (TB)
Model
Projected PIT 20.7 – TB 19.8
margin −0.9 · total 40.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| PIT | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.3 12th | Power rating | 19th −1.0 |
| −3.2 30th | Offense rating | 21st −1.1 |
| +4.6 2nd | Defense rating | 15th +0.0 |
| −0.252 30th | Offense EPA/play | 21st −0.081 |
| −0.358 2nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 15th +0.001 |
| 33.9% 32nd | Offense success rate | 5th 51.8% |
| 36.7% 5th | Defense success rate allowed | 23rd 47.6% |
| −0.251 27th | Pass EPA/dropback | 25th −0.168 |
| −0.638 1st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 12th −0.030 |
| −0.252 27th | Rush EPA/carry | 4th +0.118 |
| −0.113 13th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 25th +0.050 |
| 6.2% 22nd | Explosive play rate | 26th 5.4% |
| 10.0% 20th | Explosive rate allowed | 26th 11.1% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 9th 50.0% |
| 16.7% 2nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 27th 57.1% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| – – | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 14.0% 13th | Pressure rate allowed | 22nd 16.7% |
| 19.2% 10th | Pressure rate | 12th 16.2% |
| 7.1% 10th | Turnover rate | 32nd 40.0% |
| 15.4% 13th | Takeaway rate | 18th 10.0% |
| 20.0 22nd | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 26th 33.0 |
| +11.2% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.7% |
| 25.7 6th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 15th 29.8 |
| −0.252 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| −0.358 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| +0.8 19th | Special teams EPA | 4th +5.2 |
PIT offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITTB D
TB offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBPIT D