Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 4:25 pm ET · Allegiant Stadium (dome)
TBD referee · 6 rest days (BUF) / 7 (LV)
Model
Projected BUF 24.3 – LV 25.9
margin +1.6 · total 50.2
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BUF | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 10th | Power rating | 9th +2.7 |
| +3.4 4th | Offense rating | 20th −0.4 |
| −0.8 20th | Defense rating | 4th +3.1 |
| +0.278 4th | Offense EPA/play | 20th −0.029 |
| +0.071 20th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 4th −0.242 |
| 41.1% 21st | Offense success rate | 18th 43.1% |
| 48.1% 24th | Defense success rate allowed | 3rd 34.6% |
| +0.556 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 18th +0.027 |
| +0.098 17th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 7th −0.183 |
| −0.263 28th | Rush EPA/carry | 16th −0.083 |
| +0.030 24th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 3rd −0.399 |
| 14.3% 2nd | Explosive play rate | 19th 7.7% |
| 8.9% 16th | Explosive rate allowed | 23rd 10.9% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 15th 41.7% |
| 43.8% 20th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 6th 20.0% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 13th 75.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 9.1% 7th | Pressure rate allowed | 4th 6.5% |
| 21.4% 7th | Pressure rate | 5th 24.3% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 36.0 5th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| +3.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.6% |
| 28.0 9th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 31st 36.5 |
| +0.278 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.029 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.242 |
| +4.4 7th | Special teams EPA | 5th +5.0 |
BUF offense vs LV defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for LV. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFLV D
LV offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for LV against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LVBUF D