Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 1:00 pm ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CHI) / 7 (ATL)
Model
Projected CHI 25.2 – ATL 22.5
margin −2.7 · total 47.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CHI | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 8th | Power rating | 21st −1.3 |
| +4.5 2nd | Offense rating | 31st −4.6 |
| −1.6 24th | Defense rating | 3rd +3.2 |
| +0.361 2nd | Offense EPA/play | 31st −0.358 |
| +0.130 24th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 3rd −0.252 |
| 53.3% 4th | Offense success rate | 28th 36.7% |
| 47.1% 22nd | Defense success rate allowed | 1st 33.9% |
| +0.551 4th | Pass EPA/dropback | 32nd −0.638 |
| +0.242 24th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 6th −0.251 |
| +0.143 2nd | Rush EPA/carry | 20th −0.113 |
| −0.106 14th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 6th −0.252 |
| 12.0% 5th | Explosive play rate | 13th 10.0% |
| 11.8% 27th | Explosive rate allowed | 11th 6.2% |
| 71.4% 3rd | 3rd-down conversion | 30th 16.7% |
| 44.4% 21st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | – – |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 7.9% 5th | Pressure rate allowed | 23rd 19.2% |
| 11.6% 23rd | Pressure rate | 20th 14.0% |
| 7.1% 10th | Turnover rate | 19th 15.4% |
| 15.4% 13th | Takeaway rate | 22nd 7.1% |
| 59.0 1st | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 37.0 29th | Points allowed per game | 10th 20.0 |
| −1.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −17.1% |
| 28.6 12th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 18th 30.7 |
| +0.361 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| +0.130 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| +6.4 1st | Special teams EPA | 28th −2.3 |
CHI offense vs ATL defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for ATL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHIATL D
ATL offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for ATL against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ATLCHI D