Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 9:30 am ET · Wembley Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (HOU) / 7 (JAX)
Model
Projected HOU 22.1 – JAX 32.7
margin +10.6 · total 54.9
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| HOU | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.6 23rd | Power rating | 1st +6.5 |
| +0.8 13th | Offense rating | 3rd +3.8 |
| −3.4 29th | Defense rating | 7th +2.7 |
| +0.071 13th | Offense EPA/play | 3rd +0.310 |
| +0.278 29th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 7th −0.206 |
| 48.1% 9th | Offense success rate | 1st 59.3% |
| 41.1% 12th | Defense success rate allowed | 16th 43.1% |
| +0.098 16th | Pass EPA/dropback | 1st +0.731 |
| +0.556 30th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 5th −0.257 |
| +0.030 9th | Rush EPA/carry | 13th −0.053 |
| −0.263 5th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 12th −0.119 |
| 8.9% 17th | Explosive play rate | 1st 16.7% |
| 14.3% 31st | Explosive rate allowed | 15th 7.8% |
| 43.8% 13th | 3rd-down conversion | 8th 55.6% |
| 33.3% 13th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 1st 12.5% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 33.3% 4th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 21.4% 26th | Pressure rate allowed | 11th 12.5% |
| 9.1% 26th | Pressure rate | 2nd 30.0% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 3rd 22.2% |
| 31.0 8th | Points per game | 6th 34.0 |
| 36.0 28th | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| −4.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.3% |
| 31.1 21st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 14th 29.4 |
| +0.071 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.310 |
| +0.278 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.206 |
| +4.3 9th | Special teams EPA | 15th +3.0 |
HOU offense vs JAX defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for JAX. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUJAX D
JAX offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for JAX against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
JAXHOU D