Week 8 · Sunday, Nov 1 · 1:00 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (ATL) / 7 (TB)
Model
Projected ATL 19.3 – TB 21.1
margin +1.8 · total 40.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| ATL | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.3 21st | Power rating | 19th −1.0 |
| −4.6 31st | Offense rating | 21st −1.1 |
| +3.2 3rd | Defense rating | 15th +0.0 |
| −0.358 31st | Offense EPA/play | 21st −0.081 |
| −0.252 3rd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 15th +0.001 |
| 36.7% 28th | Offense success rate | 5th 51.8% |
| 33.9% 1st | Defense success rate allowed | 23rd 47.6% |
| −0.638 32nd | Pass EPA/dropback | 25th −0.168 |
| −0.251 6th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 12th −0.030 |
| −0.113 20th | Rush EPA/carry | 4th +0.118 |
| −0.252 6th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 25th +0.050 |
| 10.0% 13th | Explosive play rate | 26th 5.4% |
| 6.2% 11th | Explosive rate allowed | 26th 11.1% |
| 16.7% 30th | 3rd-down conversion | 9th 50.0% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 27th 57.1% |
| – – | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 50.0% 9th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 19.2% 23rd | Pressure rate allowed | 22nd 16.7% |
| 14.0% 20th | Pressure rate | 12th 16.2% |
| 15.4% 19th | Turnover rate | 32nd 40.0% |
| 7.1% 22nd | Takeaway rate | 18th 10.0% |
| 13.0 25th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 20.0 10th | Points allowed per game | 26th 33.0 |
| −17.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.7% |
| 30.7 18th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 15th 29.8 |
| −0.358 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| −0.252 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| −2.3 28th | Special teams EPA | 4th +5.2 |
ATL offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for ATL against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ATLTB D
TB offense vs ATL defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for ATL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBATL D