Week 8 · Sunday, Nov 1 · 4:25 pm ET · Hard Rock Stadium
TBD referee · 10 rest days (NE) / 7 (MIA)
Model
Projected NE 22.3 – MIA 22.6
margin +0.3 · total 45.0
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.5 22nd | Power rating | 24th −2.7 |
| −1.2 22nd | Offense rating | 29th −3.1 |
| −0.3 18th | Defense rating | 13th +0.4 |
| −0.092 22nd | Offense EPA/play | 29th −0.242 |
| +0.029 18th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 13th −0.029 |
| 40.9% 23rd | Offense success rate | 30th 34.6% |
| 38.8% 8th | Defense success rate allowed | 15th 43.1% |
| +0.127 15th | Pass EPA/dropback | 26th −0.183 |
| +0.196 21st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 15th +0.027 |
| −0.451 32nd | Rush EPA/carry | 30th −0.399 |
| −0.195 8th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 17th −0.083 |
| 1.4% 31st | Explosive play rate | 10th 10.9% |
| 10.2% 21st | Explosive rate allowed | 13th 7.7% |
| 31.3% 21st | 3rd-down conversion | 27th 20.0% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 18th 41.7% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 18th 75.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 28th 24.3% |
| 22.2% 6th | Pressure rate | 29th 6.5% |
| 33.3% 31st | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 18th 27.0 |
| −3.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – −2.7% |
| 31.9 24th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 29th 34.4 |
| −0.092 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.242 |
| +0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.029 |
| +1.0 18th | Special teams EPA | 27th −1.2 |
NE offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEMIA D
MIA offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIANE D