Week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20 · 1:00 pm ET · MetLife Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (GB) / 7 (NYJ) · QBs: Jordan Love vs Geno Smith
Model
Projected GB 19.8 – NYJ 27.8
margin +8.1 · total 47.6
Market
GB -4.5 · O/U 44.5
implied GB 24.5 – NYJ 20.0
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
+12.6
NYJ side of the number
Total edge
+3.1
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| GB | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.2 26th | Power rating | 6th +3.4 |
| −2.4 25th | Offense rating | 10th +1.5 |
| −0.8 21st | Defense rating | 10th +1.8 |
| −0.181 25th | Offense EPA/play | 10th +0.127 |
| +0.071 21st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 10th −0.141 |
| 38.2% 27th | Offense success rate | 7th 48.4% |
| 38.7% 7th | Defense success rate allowed | 19th 44.0% |
| −0.059 22nd | Pass EPA/dropback | 6th +0.338 |
| +0.233 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 9th −0.152 |
| −0.438 31st | Rush EPA/carry | 10th −0.038 |
| −0.125 11th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 16th −0.096 |
| 13.2% 3rd | Explosive play rate | 8th 10.9% |
| 3.2% 4th | Explosive rate allowed | 5th 4.0% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 28th 18.2% |
| 57.1% 27th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 25.0% 29th | Red-zone TD rate | 15th 66.7% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 32.6% 32nd | Pressure rate allowed | 1st 3.9% |
| 16.1% 13th | Pressure rate | 14th 15.4% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 7.7% 20th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 22.0 20th | Points per game | 18th 23.0 |
| 39.0 30th | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| −3.0% – | Pass rate over expected | – −8.9% |
| 19.3 1st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 28th 34.3 |
| −0.181 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.127 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.141 |
| +3.5 12th | Special teams EPA | 11th +3.5 |
GB offense vs NYJ defense
Offense percentiles for GB against the matching defensive percentiles for NYJ. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
GBNYJ D
NYJ offense vs GB defense
Offense percentiles for NYJ against the matching defensive percentiles for GB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NYJGB D