Week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20 · 4:25 pm ET · Levi's Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (MIA) / 10 (SF) · QBs: Malik Willis vs Brock Purdy
Model
Projected MIA 17.9 – SF 27.4
margin +9.4 · total 45.3
Market
SF -12.5 · O/U 45.5
implied MIA 16.5 – SF 29.0
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−3.1
MIA side of the number
Total edge
−0.2
leans under
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIA | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.7 24th | Power rating | 4th +5.2 |
| −3.1 29th | Offense rating | 7th +2.3 |
| +0.4 13th | Defense rating | 5th +2.9 |
| −0.242 29th | Offense EPA/play | 7th +0.190 |
| −0.029 13th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 5th −0.226 |
| 34.6% 30th | Offense success rate | 3rd 56.9% |
| 43.1% 15th | Defense success rate allowed | 17th 43.3% |
| −0.183 26th | Pass EPA/dropback | 11th +0.227 |
| +0.027 15th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 4th −0.270 |
| −0.399 30th | Rush EPA/carry | 3rd +0.142 |
| −0.083 17th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 9th −0.171 |
| 10.9% 10th | Explosive play rate | 19th 7.7% |
| 7.7% 13th | Explosive rate allowed | 12th 6.7% |
| 20.0% 27th | 3rd-down conversion | 4th 58.3% |
| 41.7% 18th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 7th 22.2% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 15th 66.7% |
| 75.0% 18th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 24.3% 28th | Pressure rate allowed | 3rd 5.6% |
| 6.5% 29th | Pressure rate | 3rd 27.6% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 16th 11.1% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 5th 20.0% |
| 13.0 25th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 1st 7.0 |
| −2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.1% |
| 34.4 29th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 25th 32.7 |
| −0.242 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.190 |
| −0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.226 |
| −1.2 27th | Special teams EPA | 25th −0.7 |
MIA offense vs SF defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for SF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIASF D
SF offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for SF against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
SFMIA D