Week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20 · 1:00 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CLE) / 7 (TB) · QBs: Deshaun Watson vs Baker Mayfield
Model
Projected CLE 21.3 – TB 28.2
margin +7.0 · total 49.5
Market
TB -8.5 · O/U 40.5
implied CLE 16.0 – TB 24.5
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−1.5
CLE side of the number
Total edge
+9.0
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CLE | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| −6.5 32nd | Power rating | 19th −1.0 |
| −2.7 26th | Offense rating | 21st −1.1 |
| −3.8 30th | Defense rating | 15th +0.0 |
| −0.206 26th | Offense EPA/play | 21st −0.081 |
| +0.310 30th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 15th +0.001 |
| 43.1% 17th | Offense success rate | 5th 51.8% |
| 59.3% 32nd | Defense success rate allowed | 23rd 47.6% |
| −0.257 28th | Pass EPA/dropback | 25th −0.168 |
| +0.731 32nd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 12th −0.030 |
| −0.119 21st | Rush EPA/carry | 4th +0.118 |
| −0.053 20th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 25th +0.050 |
| 7.8% 18th | Explosive play rate | 26th 5.4% |
| 16.7% 32nd | Explosive rate allowed | 26th 11.1% |
| 12.5% 32nd | 3rd-down conversion | 9th 50.0% |
| 55.6% 25th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 27th 57.1% |
| 0.0% 30th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 30.0% 31st | Pressure rate allowed | 22nd 16.7% |
| 12.5% 22nd | Pressure rate | 12th 16.2% |
| 22.2% 30th | Turnover rate | 32nd 40.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 18th 10.0% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 34.0 27th | Points allowed per game | 26th 33.0 |
| −9.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.7% |
| 38.8 32nd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 15th 29.8 |
| −0.206 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| +0.310 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| +6.1 2nd | Special teams EPA | 4th +5.2 |
CLE offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for CLE against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CLETB D
TB offense vs CLE defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for CLE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBCLE D