Week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20 · 1:00 pm ET · Soldier Field
Minnesota Vikings1-0 · +3.2 power
@
CHI -5.5 · O/U 49.5 · Division game FOX
Chicago Bears1-0 · +2.9 power
TBD referee · 7 rest days (MIN) / 7 (CHI) · QBs: Kyler Murray vs Caleb Williams
Model
Projected MIN 26.4 – CHI 27.6
margin +1.2 · total 54.0
Market
CHI -5.5 · O/U 49.5
implied MIN 22.0 – CHI 27.5
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−4.3
MIN side of the number
Total edge
+4.5
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIN | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.2 7th | Power rating | 8th +2.9 |
| +0.8 12th | Offense rating | 2nd +4.5 |
| +2.4 8th | Defense rating | 24th −1.6 |
| +0.071 12th | Offense EPA/play | 2nd +0.361 |
| −0.181 8th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 24th +0.130 |
| 38.7% 26th | Offense success rate | 4th 53.3% |
| 38.2% 6th | Defense success rate allowed | 22nd 47.1% |
| +0.233 10th | Pass EPA/dropback | 4th +0.551 |
| −0.059 11th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 24th +0.242 |
| −0.125 22nd | Rush EPA/carry | 2nd +0.143 |
| −0.438 2nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 14th −0.106 |
| 3.2% 29th | Explosive play rate | 5th 12.0% |
| 13.2% 30th | Explosive rate allowed | 27th 11.8% |
| 57.1% 5th | 3rd-down conversion | 3rd 71.4% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 21st 44.4% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 25.0% 3rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 16.1% 20th | Pressure rate allowed | 5th 7.9% |
| 32.6% 1st | Pressure rate | 23rd 11.6% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 39.0 3rd | Points per game | 1st 59.0 |
| 22.0 12th | Points allowed per game | 29th 37.0 |
| −8.0% – | Pass rate over expected | – −1.7% |
| 32.7 26th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 12th 28.6 |
| +0.071 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.361 |
| −0.181 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.130 |
| +3.0 14th | Special teams EPA | 1st +6.4 |
MIN offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for MIN against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MINCHI D
CHI offense vs MIN defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for MIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHIMIN D