Week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20 · 1:00 pm ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Carolina Panthers0-1 · −2.9 power
@
CAR -1.5 · O/U 43.5 · Division game FOX
Atlanta Falcons0-1 · −1.3 power
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CAR) / 7 (ATL) · QBs: Bryce Young vs Tua Tagovailoa
Model
Projected CAR 22.3 – ATL 25.4
margin +3.1 · total 47.7
Market
CAR -1.5 · O/U 43.5
implied CAR 22.5 – ATL 21.0
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
+4.6
ATL side of the number
Total edge
+4.2
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CAR | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.9 25th | Power rating | 21st −1.3 |
| +1.6 9th | Offense rating | 31st −4.6 |
| −4.5 31st | Defense rating | 3rd +3.2 |
| +0.130 9th | Offense EPA/play | 31st −0.358 |
| +0.361 31st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 3rd −0.252 |
| 47.1% 11th | Offense success rate | 28th 36.7% |
| 53.3% 29th | Defense success rate allowed | 1st 33.9% |
| +0.242 9th | Pass EPA/dropback | 32nd −0.638 |
| +0.551 29th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 6th −0.251 |
| −0.106 19th | Rush EPA/carry | 20th −0.113 |
| +0.143 31st | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 6th −0.252 |
| 11.8% 6th | Explosive play rate | 13th 10.0% |
| 12.0% 28th | Explosive rate allowed | 11th 6.2% |
| 44.4% 12th | 3rd-down conversion | 30th 16.7% |
| 71.4% 30th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | – – |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 11.6% 10th | Pressure rate allowed | 23rd 19.2% |
| 7.9% 28th | Pressure rate | 20th 14.0% |
| 15.4% 19th | Turnover rate | 19th 15.4% |
| 7.1% 22nd | Takeaway rate | 22nd 7.1% |
| 37.0 4th | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 59.0 32nd | Points allowed per game | 10th 20.0 |
| +3.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – −17.1% |
| 24.7 4th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 18th 30.7 |
| +0.130 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| +0.361 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| −0.5 24th | Special teams EPA | 28th −2.3 |
CAR offense vs ATL defense
Offense percentiles for CAR against the matching defensive percentiles for ATL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CARATL D
ATL offense vs CAR defense
Offense percentiles for ATL against the matching defensive percentiles for CAR. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ATLCAR D