Week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20 · 1:00 pm ET · M&T Bank Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (NO) / 7 (BAL) · QBs: Tyler Shough vs Lamar Jackson
Model
Projected NO 21.2 – BAL 27.6
margin +6.4 · total 48.9
Market
BAL -8.5 · O/U 47.5
implied NO 19.5 – BAL 28.0
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−2.1
NO side of the number
Total edge
+1.4
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NO | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.6 15th | Power rating | 3rd +5.5 |
| +0.2 17th | Offense rating | 6th +2.6 |
| +0.4 14th | Defense rating | 6th +2.9 |
| +0.019 17th | Offense EPA/play | 6th +0.209 |
| −0.027 14th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 6th −0.225 |
| 43.8% 15th | Offense success rate | 12th 46.9% |
| 45.5% 20th | Defense success rate allowed | 13th 42.6% |
| +0.052 17th | Pass EPA/dropback | 7th +0.316 |
| +0.012 14th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 3rd −0.410 |
| −0.075 15th | Rush EPA/carry | 6th +0.102 |
| −0.072 19th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 28th +0.116 |
| 9.0% 16th | Explosive play rate | 8th 10.9% |
| 10.4% 22nd | Explosive rate allowed | 29th 13.0% |
| 47.1% 10th | 3rd-down conversion | 17th 37.5% |
| 38.5% 17th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 11th 30.0% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 13th 75.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 8th 10.3% |
| 19.5% 9th | Pressure rate | 4th 26.5% |
| 21.4% 29th | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 6.7% 24th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 30.0 11th | Points per game | 2nd 41.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 14th 23.0 |
| +4.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.8% |
| 21.6 2nd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 19th 30.8 |
| +0.019 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.209 |
| −0.027 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.225 |
| −2.4 29th | Special teams EPA | 6th +4.8 |
NO offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOBAL D
BAL offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALNO D