Week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20 · 1:00 pm ET · Reliant Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CIN) / 7 (HOU) · QBs: Joe Burrow vs C.J. Stroud
Model
Projected CIN 27.4 – HOU 25.2
margin −2.1 · total 52.6
Market
HOU -3.0 · O/U 46.5
implied CIN 21.8 – HOU 24.8
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−5.1
CIN side of the number
Total edge
+6.1
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CIN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.0 14th | Power rating | 23rd −2.6 |
| −0.0 18th | Offense rating | 13th +0.8 |
| +1.1 12th | Defense rating | 29th −3.4 |
| +0.001 18th | Offense EPA/play | 13th +0.071 |
| −0.081 12th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 29th +0.278 |
| 47.6% 10th | Offense success rate | 9th 48.1% |
| 51.8% 28th | Defense success rate allowed | 12th 41.1% |
| −0.030 21st | Pass EPA/dropback | 16th +0.098 |
| −0.168 8th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 30th +0.556 |
| +0.050 8th | Rush EPA/carry | 9th +0.030 |
| +0.118 29th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 5th −0.263 |
| 11.1% 7th | Explosive play rate | 17th 8.9% |
| 5.4% 7th | Explosive rate allowed | 31st 14.3% |
| 57.1% 5th | 3rd-down conversion | 13th 43.8% |
| 50.0% 24th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 40.0% 24th | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 50.0% 9th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 16.2% 21st | Pressure rate allowed | 26th 21.4% |
| 16.7% 11th | Pressure rate | 26th 9.1% |
| 10.0% 15th | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 40.0% 1st | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 33.0 7th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 28th 36.0 |
| +5.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.8% |
| 23.1 3rd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 21st 31.1 |
| +0.001 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| −0.081 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| +5.6 3rd | Special teams EPA | 9th +4.3 |
CIN offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for CIN against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CINHOU D
HOU offense vs CIN defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for CIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUCIN D