Week 2 · Thursday, Sep 17 · 8:15 pm ET · Highmark Stadium
TBD referee · 4 rest days (DET) / 4 (BUF) · QBs: Jared Goff vs Josh Allen
Model
Projected DET 24.4 – BUF 29.1
margin +4.7 · total 53.5
Market
BUF -4.5 · O/U 53.5
implied DET 24.5 – BUF 29.0
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
+0.2
BUF side of the number
Total edge
−0.0
leans under
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| DET | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| −0.6 18th | Power rating | 10th +2.6 |
| −0.4 19th | Offense rating | 4th +3.4 |
| −0.2 16th | Defense rating | 20th −0.8 |
| −0.027 19th | Offense EPA/play | 4th +0.278 |
| +0.019 16th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 20th +0.071 |
| 45.5% 13th | Offense success rate | 21st 41.1% |
| 43.8% 18th | Defense success rate allowed | 24th 48.1% |
| +0.012 19th | Pass EPA/dropback | 3rd +0.556 |
| +0.052 16th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 17th +0.098 |
| −0.072 14th | Rush EPA/carry | 28th −0.263 |
| −0.075 18th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 24th +0.030 |
| 10.4% 11th | Explosive play rate | 2nd 14.3% |
| 9.0% 17th | Explosive rate allowed | 16th 8.9% |
| 38.5% 16th | 3rd-down conversion | 18th 33.3% |
| 47.1% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 20th 43.8% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 19.5% 24th | Pressure rate allowed | 7th 9.1% |
| 14.3% 18th | Pressure rate | 7th 21.4% |
| 6.7% 9th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 21.4% 4th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 31.0 8th | Points per game | 5th 36.0 |
| 30.0 22nd | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −2.4% – | Pass rate over expected | – +3.7% |
| 31.1 20th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 9th 28.0 |
| −0.027 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| +0.019 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +0.1 23rd | Special teams EPA | 7th +4.4 |
DET offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for DET against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DETBUF D
BUF offense vs DET defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for DET. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFDET D