Week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 · 1:00 pm ET · Soldier Field
TBD referee · 7 rest days (NYJ) / 6 (CHI)
Model
Projected NYJ 27.1 – CHI 28.1
margin +1.0 · total 55.2
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NYJ | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.4 6th | Power rating | 8th +2.9 |
| +1.5 10th | Offense rating | 2nd +4.5 |
| +1.8 10th | Defense rating | 24th −1.6 |
| +0.127 10th | Offense EPA/play | 2nd +0.361 |
| −0.141 10th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 24th +0.130 |
| 48.4% 7th | Offense success rate | 4th 53.3% |
| 44.0% 19th | Defense success rate allowed | 22nd 47.1% |
| +0.338 6th | Pass EPA/dropback | 4th +0.551 |
| −0.152 9th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 24th +0.242 |
| −0.038 10th | Rush EPA/carry | 2nd +0.143 |
| −0.096 16th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 14th −0.106 |
| 10.9% 8th | Explosive play rate | 5th 12.0% |
| 4.0% 5th | Explosive rate allowed | 27th 11.8% |
| 18.2% 28th | 3rd-down conversion | 3rd 71.4% |
| 33.3% 13th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 21st 44.4% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 3.9% 1st | Pressure rate allowed | 5th 7.9% |
| 15.4% 14th | Pressure rate | 23rd 11.6% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 23.0 18th | Points per game | 1st 59.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 29th 37.0 |
| −8.9% – | Pass rate over expected | – −1.7% |
| 34.3 28th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 12th 28.6 |
| +0.127 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.361 |
| −0.141 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.130 |
| +3.5 11th | Special teams EPA | 1st +6.4 |
NYJ offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for NYJ against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NYJCHI D
CHI offense vs NYJ defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for NYJ. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHINYJ D