Week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 · 1:00 pm ET · Reliant Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (DAL) / 7 (HOU)
Model
Projected DAL 30.8 – HOU 30.8
margin +0.1 · total 61.6
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| DAL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.2 20th | Power rating | 23rd −2.6 |
| +3.3 5th | Offense rating | 13th +0.8 |
| −4.5 32nd | Defense rating | 29th −3.4 |
| +0.271 5th | Offense EPA/play | 13th +0.071 |
| +0.363 32nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 29th +0.278 |
| 48.3% 8th | Offense success rate | 9th 48.1% |
| 59.1% 31st | Defense success rate allowed | 12th 41.1% |
| +0.425 5th | Pass EPA/dropback | 16th +0.098 |
| +0.667 31st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 30th +0.556 |
| −0.100 18th | Rush EPA/carry | 9th +0.030 |
| +0.059 26th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 5th −0.263 |
| 0.0% 32nd | Explosive play rate | 17th 8.9% |
| 6.1% 10th | Explosive rate allowed | 31st 14.3% |
| 72.7% 2nd | 3rd-down conversion | 13th 43.8% |
| 90.0% 32nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 8.3% 6th | Pressure rate allowed | 26th 21.4% |
| 15.2% 15th | Pressure rate | 26th 9.1% |
| 14.3% 17th | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 14.3% 15th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 20.0 22nd | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 28.0 21st | Points allowed per game | 28th 36.0 |
| +2.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.8% |
| 25.6 5th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 21st 31.1 |
| +0.271 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +0.363 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| −1.1 26th | Special teams EPA | 9th +4.3 |
DAL offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for DAL against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DALHOU D
HOU offense vs DAL defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for DAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUDAL D