Week 4 · Monday, Oct 5 · 8:15 pm ET · Caesars Superdome (dome)
TBD referee · 11 rest days (ATL) / 8 (NO)
Model
Projected ATL 19.0 – NO 22.4
margin +3.4 · total 41.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| ATL | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.3 21st | Power rating | 15th +0.6 |
| −4.6 31st | Offense rating | 17th +0.2 |
| +3.2 3rd | Defense rating | 14th +0.4 |
| −0.358 31st | Offense EPA/play | 17th +0.019 |
| −0.252 3rd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 14th −0.027 |
| 36.7% 28th | Offense success rate | 15th 43.8% |
| 33.9% 1st | Defense success rate allowed | 20th 45.5% |
| −0.638 32nd | Pass EPA/dropback | 17th +0.052 |
| −0.251 6th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 14th +0.012 |
| −0.113 20th | Rush EPA/carry | 15th −0.075 |
| −0.252 6th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 19th −0.072 |
| 10.0% 13th | Explosive play rate | 16th 9.0% |
| 6.2% 11th | Explosive rate allowed | 22nd 10.4% |
| 16.7% 30th | 3rd-down conversion | 10th 47.1% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 17th 38.5% |
| – – | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 50.0% 9th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 19.2% 23rd | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 14.0% 20th | Pressure rate | 9th 19.5% |
| 15.4% 19th | Turnover rate | 29th 21.4% |
| 7.1% 22nd | Takeaway rate | 24th 6.7% |
| 13.0 25th | Points per game | 11th 30.0 |
| 20.0 10th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −17.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +4.1% |
| 30.7 18th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 2nd 21.6 |
| −0.358 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.019 |
| −0.252 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.027 |
| −2.3 28th | Special teams EPA | 29th −2.4 |
ATL offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for ATL against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ATLNO D
NO offense vs ATL defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for ATL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOATL D