Week 4 · Thursday, Oct 1 · 8:15 pm ET · Huntington Bank Field
Pittsburgh Steelers1-0 · +1.3 power
@
no line · Division game Prime Video
Cleveland Browns0-1 · −6.5 power
TBD referee · 4 rest days (PIT) / 4 (CLE)
Model
Projected PIT 24.6 – CLE 18.2
margin −6.3 · total 42.8
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| PIT | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.3 12th | Power rating | 32nd −6.5 |
| −3.2 30th | Offense rating | 26th −2.7 |
| +4.6 2nd | Defense rating | 30th −3.8 |
| −0.252 30th | Offense EPA/play | 26th −0.206 |
| −0.358 2nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 30th +0.310 |
| 33.9% 32nd | Offense success rate | 17th 43.1% |
| 36.7% 5th | Defense success rate allowed | 32nd 59.3% |
| −0.251 27th | Pass EPA/dropback | 28th −0.257 |
| −0.638 1st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 32nd +0.731 |
| −0.252 27th | Rush EPA/carry | 21st −0.119 |
| −0.113 13th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 20th −0.053 |
| 6.2% 22nd | Explosive play rate | 18th 7.8% |
| 10.0% 20th | Explosive rate allowed | 32nd 16.7% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 32nd 12.5% |
| 16.7% 2nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 25th 55.6% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 30th 0.0% |
| – – | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 14.0% 13th | Pressure rate allowed | 31st 30.0% |
| 19.2% 10th | Pressure rate | 22nd 12.5% |
| 7.1% 10th | Turnover rate | 30th 22.2% |
| 15.4% 13th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 20.0 22nd | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 27th 34.0 |
| +11.2% – | Pass rate over expected | – −9.7% |
| 25.7 6th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 32nd 38.8 |
| −0.252 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.206 |
| −0.358 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.310 |
| +0.8 19th | Special teams EPA | 2nd +6.1 |
PIT offense vs CLE defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for CLE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITCLE D
CLE offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for CLE against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CLEPIT D