Week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 · 1:00 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium
TBD referee · 10 rest days (GB) / 7 (TB)
Model
Projected GB 21.6 – TB 25.2
margin +3.6 · total 46.8
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| GB | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.2 26th | Power rating | 19th −1.0 |
| −2.4 25th | Offense rating | 21st −1.1 |
| −0.8 21st | Defense rating | 15th +0.0 |
| −0.181 25th | Offense EPA/play | 21st −0.081 |
| +0.071 21st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 15th +0.001 |
| 38.2% 27th | Offense success rate | 5th 51.8% |
| 38.7% 7th | Defense success rate allowed | 23rd 47.6% |
| −0.059 22nd | Pass EPA/dropback | 25th −0.168 |
| +0.233 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 12th −0.030 |
| −0.438 31st | Rush EPA/carry | 4th +0.118 |
| −0.125 11th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 25th +0.050 |
| 13.2% 3rd | Explosive play rate | 26th 5.4% |
| 3.2% 4th | Explosive rate allowed | 26th 11.1% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 9th 50.0% |
| 57.1% 27th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 27th 57.1% |
| 25.0% 29th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 32.6% 32nd | Pressure rate allowed | 22nd 16.7% |
| 16.1% 13th | Pressure rate | 12th 16.2% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 32nd 40.0% |
| 7.7% 20th | Takeaway rate | 18th 10.0% |
| 22.0 20th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 39.0 30th | Points allowed per game | 26th 33.0 |
| −3.0% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.7% |
| 19.3 1st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 15th 29.8 |
| −0.181 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| +3.5 12th | Special teams EPA | 4th +5.2 |
GB offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for GB against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
GBTB D
TB offense vs GB defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for GB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBGB D