Week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 · 1:00 pm ET · M&T Bank Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (TEN) / 7 (BAL)
Model
Projected TEN 19.2 – BAL 29.6
margin +10.3 · total 48.8
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| TEN | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.4 27th | Power rating | 3rd +5.5 |
| −1.8 23rd | Offense rating | 6th +2.6 |
| −1.5 23rd | Defense rating | 6th +2.9 |
| −0.141 23rd | Offense EPA/play | 6th +0.209 |
| +0.127 23rd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 6th −0.225 |
| 44.0% 14th | Offense success rate | 12th 46.9% |
| 48.4% 26th | Defense success rate allowed | 13th 42.6% |
| −0.152 24th | Pass EPA/dropback | 7th +0.316 |
| +0.338 27th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 3rd −0.410 |
| −0.096 17th | Rush EPA/carry | 6th +0.102 |
| −0.038 23rd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 28th +0.116 |
| 4.0% 28th | Explosive play rate | 8th 10.9% |
| 10.9% 24th | Explosive rate allowed | 29th 13.0% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 17th 37.5% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 11th 30.0% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 13th 75.0% |
| 66.7% 14th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 15.4% 19th | Pressure rate allowed | 8th 10.3% |
| 3.9% 32nd | Pressure rate | 4th 26.5% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 2nd 41.0 |
| 23.0 14th | Points allowed per game | 14th 23.0 |
| +5.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.8% |
| 27.3 7th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 19th 30.8 |
| −0.141 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.209 |
| +0.127 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.225 |
| −5.1 32nd | Special teams EPA | 6th +4.8 |
TEN offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for TEN against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TENBAL D
BAL offense vs TEN defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for TEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALTEN D