Week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 · 1:00 pm ET · Highmark Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (NE) / 7 (BUF)
Model
Projected NE 23.6 – BUF 29.2
margin +5.6 · total 52.8
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NE | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.5 22nd | Power rating | 10th +2.6 |
| −1.2 22nd | Offense rating | 4th +3.4 |
| −0.3 18th | Defense rating | 20th −0.8 |
| −0.092 22nd | Offense EPA/play | 4th +0.278 |
| +0.029 18th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 20th +0.071 |
| 40.9% 23rd | Offense success rate | 21st 41.1% |
| 38.8% 8th | Defense success rate allowed | 24th 48.1% |
| +0.127 15th | Pass EPA/dropback | 3rd +0.556 |
| +0.196 21st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 17th +0.098 |
| −0.451 32nd | Rush EPA/carry | 28th −0.263 |
| −0.195 8th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 24th +0.030 |
| 1.4% 31st | Explosive play rate | 2nd 14.3% |
| 10.2% 21st | Explosive rate allowed | 16th 8.9% |
| 31.3% 21st | 3rd-down conversion | 18th 33.3% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 20th 43.8% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 7th 9.1% |
| 22.2% 6th | Pressure rate | 7th 21.4% |
| 33.3% 31st | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 5th 36.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −3.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – +3.7% |
| 31.9 24th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 9th 28.0 |
| −0.092 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| +0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +1.0 18th | Special teams EPA | 7th +4.4 |
NE offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEBUF D
BUF offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFNE D