Week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 · 4:25 pm ET · Levi's Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (DEN) / 7 (SF)
Model
Projected DEN 16.2 – SF 29.2
margin +13.0 · total 45.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| DEN | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| −6.2 31st | Power rating | 4th +5.2 |
| −4.8 32nd | Offense rating | 7th +2.3 |
| −1.4 22nd | Defense rating | 5th +2.9 |
| −0.378 32nd | Offense EPA/play | 7th +0.190 |
| +0.118 22nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 5th −0.226 |
| 36.0% 29th | Offense success rate | 3rd 56.9% |
| 40.9% 11th | Defense success rate allowed | 17th 43.3% |
| −0.442 31st | Pass EPA/dropback | 11th +0.227 |
| −0.014 13th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 4th −0.270 |
| −0.228 26th | Rush EPA/carry | 3rd +0.142 |
| +0.259 32nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 9th −0.171 |
| 2.0% 30th | Explosive play rate | 19th 7.7% |
| 9.1% 18th | Explosive rate allowed | 12th 6.7% |
| 16.7% 30th | 3rd-down conversion | 4th 58.3% |
| 56.3% 26th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 7th 22.2% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 15th 66.7% |
| 60.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 21.2% 25th | Pressure rate allowed | 3rd 5.6% |
| 15.2% 15th | Pressure rate | 3rd 27.6% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 16th 11.1% |
| 8.3% 19th | Takeaway rate | 5th 20.0% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 1st 7.0 |
| +1.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.1% |
| 33.5 27th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 25th 32.7 |
| −0.378 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.190 |
| +0.118 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.226 |
| +3.6 10th | Special teams EPA | 25th −0.7 |
DEN offense vs SF defense
Offense percentiles for DEN against the matching defensive percentiles for SF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DENSF D
SF offense vs DEN defense
Offense percentiles for SF against the matching defensive percentiles for DEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
SFDEN D