Week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 · 4:05 pm ET · U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (MIA) / 7 (MIN)
Model
Projected MIA 18.5 – MIN 25.9
margin +7.4 · total 44.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIA | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.7 24th | Power rating | 7th +3.2 |
| −3.1 29th | Offense rating | 12th +0.8 |
| +0.4 13th | Defense rating | 8th +2.4 |
| −0.242 29th | Offense EPA/play | 12th +0.071 |
| −0.029 13th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 8th −0.181 |
| 34.6% 30th | Offense success rate | 26th 38.7% |
| 43.1% 15th | Defense success rate allowed | 6th 38.2% |
| −0.183 26th | Pass EPA/dropback | 10th +0.233 |
| +0.027 15th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 11th −0.059 |
| −0.399 30th | Rush EPA/carry | 22nd −0.125 |
| −0.083 17th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 2nd −0.438 |
| 10.9% 10th | Explosive play rate | 29th 3.2% |
| 7.7% 13th | Explosive rate allowed | 30th 13.2% |
| 20.0% 27th | 3rd-down conversion | 5th 57.1% |
| 41.7% 18th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 75.0% 18th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 3rd 25.0% |
| 24.3% 28th | Pressure rate allowed | 20th 16.1% |
| 6.5% 29th | Pressure rate | 1st 32.6% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 13.0 25th | Points per game | 3rd 39.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 12th 22.0 |
| −2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −8.0% |
| 34.4 29th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 26th 32.7 |
| −0.242 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| −0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.181 |
| −1.2 27th | Special teams EPA | 14th +3.0 |
MIA offense vs MIN defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for MIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIAMIN D
MIN offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for MIN against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MINMIA D