Week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4 · 1:00 pm ET · Paycor Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (JAX) / 7 (CIN)
Model
Projected JAX 26.7 – CIN 22.8
margin −4.0 · total 49.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| JAX | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 1st | Power rating | 14th +1.0 |
| +3.8 3rd | Offense rating | 18th −0.0 |
| +2.7 7th | Defense rating | 12th +1.1 |
| +0.310 3rd | Offense EPA/play | 18th +0.001 |
| −0.206 7th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 12th −0.081 |
| 59.3% 1st | Offense success rate | 10th 47.6% |
| 43.1% 16th | Defense success rate allowed | 28th 51.8% |
| +0.731 1st | Pass EPA/dropback | 21st −0.030 |
| −0.257 5th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 8th −0.168 |
| −0.053 13th | Rush EPA/carry | 8th +0.050 |
| −0.119 12th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 29th +0.118 |
| 16.7% 1st | Explosive play rate | 7th 11.1% |
| 7.8% 15th | Explosive rate allowed | 7th 5.4% |
| 55.6% 8th | 3rd-down conversion | 5th 57.1% |
| 12.5% 1st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 24th 50.0% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 24th 40.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 12.5% 11th | Pressure rate allowed | 21st 16.2% |
| 30.0% 2nd | Pressure rate | 11th 16.7% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 15th 10.0% |
| 22.2% 3rd | Takeaway rate | 1st 40.0% |
| 34.0 6th | Points per game | 7th 33.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 18th 27.0 |
| −4.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.7% |
| 29.4 14th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 3rd 23.1 |
| +0.310 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| −0.206 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| +3.0 15th | Special teams EPA | 3rd +5.6 |
JAX offense vs CIN defense
Offense percentiles for JAX against the matching defensive percentiles for CIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
JAXCIN D
CIN offense vs JAX defense
Offense percentiles for CIN against the matching defensive percentiles for JAX. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CINJAX D