Week 1 · Final · Lucas Oil Stadium (closed)
Model
Projected BAL 27.6 – IND 18.2
margin −9.4 · total 45.7
Market
BAL -3.0 · O/U 48.5
implied BAL 25.8 – IND 22.8
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−6.4
BAL side of the number
Total edge
−2.8
leans under
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BAL | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 2nd | Power rating | 31st −5.5 |
| +2.4 6th | Offense rating | 28th −3.0 |
| +3.0 5th | Defense rating | 27th −2.4 |
| +0.209 6th | Offense EPA/play | 26th −0.225 |
| −0.225 5th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 25th +0.209 |
| 46.9% 12th | Offense success rate | 20th 42.6% |
| 42.6% 11th | Defense success rate allowed | 19th 46.9% |
| +0.316 7th | Pass EPA/dropback | 29th −0.410 |
| −0.410 2nd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 24th +0.316 |
| +0.102 5th | Rush EPA/carry | 4th +0.116 |
| +0.116 27th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 26th +0.102 |
| 10.9% 8th | Explosive play rate | 4th 13.0% |
| 13.0% 27th | Explosive rate allowed | 22nd 10.9% |
| 37.5% 16th | 3rd-down conversion | 21st 30.0% |
| 30.0% 10th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 15th 37.5% |
| 75.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 100.0% 21st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 16th 75.0% |
| 10.3% 8th | Pressure rate allowed | 27th 26.5% |
| 26.5% 4th | Pressure rate | 23rd 10.3% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 20th 16.7% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 18th 7.7% |
| 41.0 2nd | Points per game | 17th 23.0 |
| 23.0 15th | Points allowed per game | 31st 41.0 |
| −5.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.1% |
| 30.8 18th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 28th 35.7 |
| +0.209 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.225 |
| −0.225 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.209 |
| +4.8 6th | Special teams EPA | 8th +4.4 |
BAL offense vs IND defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for IND. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALIND D
IND offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for IND against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
INDBAL D