Week 1 · Final · Bank of America Stadium
Model
Projected CHI 32.9 – CAR 28.6
margin −4.3 · total 61.5
Market
CHI -3.0 · O/U 47.5
implied CHI 25.3 – CAR 22.3
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−1.3
CHI side of the number
Total edge
+14.0
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CHI | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 8th | Power rating | 25th −2.9 |
| +4.5 2nd | Offense rating | 9th +1.6 |
| −1.6 24th | Defense rating | 31st −4.5 |
| +0.361 2nd | Offense EPA/play | 9th +0.130 |
| +0.130 24th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 31st +0.361 |
| 53.3% 4th | Offense success rate | 11th 47.1% |
| 47.1% 22nd | Defense success rate allowed | 29th 53.3% |
| +0.551 4th | Pass EPA/dropback | 9th +0.242 |
| +0.242 24th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 29th +0.551 |
| +0.143 2nd | Rush EPA/carry | 19th −0.106 |
| −0.106 14th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 31st +0.143 |
| 12.0% 5th | Explosive play rate | 6th 11.8% |
| 11.8% 27th | Explosive rate allowed | 28th 12.0% |
| 71.4% 3rd | 3rd-down conversion | 12th 44.4% |
| 44.4% 21st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 30th 71.4% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 7.9% 5th | Pressure rate allowed | 10th 11.6% |
| 11.6% 23rd | Pressure rate | 28th 7.9% |
| 7.1% 10th | Turnover rate | 19th 15.4% |
| 15.4% 13th | Takeaway rate | 22nd 7.1% |
| 59.0 1st | Points per game | 4th 37.0 |
| 37.0 29th | Points allowed per game | 32nd 59.0 |
| −1.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +3.1% |
| 28.6 12th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 4th 24.7 |
| +0.361 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.130 |
| +0.130 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.361 |
| +6.4 1st | Special teams EPA | 24th −0.5 |
CHI offense vs CAR defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for CAR. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHICAR D
CAR offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for CAR against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CARCHI D