Week 1 · Final · Allegiant Stadium (dome)
Model
Projected MIA 17.7 – LV 24.6
margin +6.9 · total 42.3
Market
LV -3.0 · O/U 40.5
implied MIA 18.8 – LV 21.8
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
+3.9
LV side of the number
Total edge
+1.8
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIA | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.7 24th | Power rating | 9th +2.7 |
| −3.1 29th | Offense rating | 20th −0.4 |
| +0.4 13th | Defense rating | 4th +3.1 |
| −0.242 29th | Offense EPA/play | 20th −0.029 |
| −0.029 13th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 4th −0.242 |
| 34.6% 30th | Offense success rate | 18th 43.1% |
| 43.1% 15th | Defense success rate allowed | 3rd 34.6% |
| −0.183 26th | Pass EPA/dropback | 18th +0.027 |
| +0.027 15th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 7th −0.183 |
| −0.399 30th | Rush EPA/carry | 16th −0.083 |
| −0.083 17th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 3rd −0.399 |
| 10.9% 10th | Explosive play rate | 19th 7.7% |
| 7.7% 13th | Explosive rate allowed | 23rd 10.9% |
| 20.0% 27th | 3rd-down conversion | 15th 41.7% |
| 41.7% 18th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 6th 20.0% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 13th 75.0% |
| 75.0% 18th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 24.3% 28th | Pressure rate allowed | 4th 6.5% |
| 6.5% 29th | Pressure rate | 5th 24.3% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 13.0 25th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| −2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.6% |
| 34.4 29th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 31st 36.5 |
| −0.242 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.029 |
| −0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.242 |
| −1.2 27th | Special teams EPA | 5th +5.0 |
MIA offense vs LV defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for LV. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIALV D
LV offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for LV against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LVMIA D