Week 1 · Final · Nissan Stadium
Model
Projected NYJ 27.0 – TEN 21.8
margin −5.2 · total 48.8
Market
TEN -1.5 · O/U 39.5
implied NYJ 19.0 – TEN 20.5
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−6.7
NYJ side of the number
Total edge
+9.3
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NYJ | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.4 6th | Power rating | 27th −3.4 |
| +1.5 10th | Offense rating | 23rd −1.8 |
| +1.8 10th | Defense rating | 23rd −1.5 |
| +0.127 10th | Offense EPA/play | 23rd −0.141 |
| −0.141 10th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 23rd +0.127 |
| 48.4% 7th | Offense success rate | 14th 44.0% |
| 44.0% 19th | Defense success rate allowed | 26th 48.4% |
| +0.338 6th | Pass EPA/dropback | 24th −0.152 |
| −0.152 9th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 27th +0.338 |
| −0.038 10th | Rush EPA/carry | 17th −0.096 |
| −0.096 16th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 23rd −0.038 |
| 10.9% 8th | Explosive play rate | 28th 4.0% |
| 4.0% 5th | Explosive rate allowed | 24th 10.9% |
| 18.2% 28th | 3rd-down conversion | 18th 33.3% |
| 33.3% 13th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 4th 18.2% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 14th 66.7% |
| 3.9% 1st | Pressure rate allowed | 19th 15.4% |
| 15.4% 14th | Pressure rate | 32nd 3.9% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 23.0 18th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 14th 23.0 |
| −8.9% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.8% |
| 34.3 28th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 7th 27.3 |
| +0.127 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.141 |
| −0.141 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.127 |
| +3.5 11th | Special teams EPA | 32nd −5.1 |
NYJ offense vs TEN defense
Offense percentiles for NYJ against the matching defensive percentiles for TEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NYJTEN D
TEN offense vs NYJ defense
Offense percentiles for TEN against the matching defensive percentiles for NYJ. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TENNYJ D