Week 1 · Final · Melbourne Cricket Ground (dome)
San Francisco 49ers1-0 · +5.2 power
277
LA -3.5 · O/U 47.5 · Division game Netflix
Los Angeles Rams0-1 · −5.2 power
Model
Projected SF 27.1 – LA 18.1
margin −9.0 · total 45.2
Market
LA -3.5 · O/U 47.5
implied SF 22.0 – LA 25.5
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−12.5
SF side of the number
Total edge
−2.3
leans under
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| SF | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.2 3rd | Power rating | 30th −5.2 |
| +2.2 7th | Offense rating | 29th −3.0 |
| +3.0 4th | Defense rating | 26th −2.2 |
| +0.190 7th | Offense EPA/play | 27th −0.226 |
| −0.226 4th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 24th +0.190 |
| 56.9% 3rd | Offense success rate | 16th 43.3% |
| 43.3% 15th | Defense success rate allowed | 28th 56.9% |
| +0.227 11th | Pass EPA/dropback | 28th −0.270 |
| −0.270 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 20th +0.227 |
| +0.142 2nd | Rush EPA/carry | 23rd −0.171 |
| −0.171 8th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 29th +0.142 |
| 7.7% 18th | Explosive play rate | 20th 6.7% |
| 6.7% 11th | Explosive rate allowed | 12th 7.7% |
| 58.3% 4th | 3rd-down conversion | 25th 22.2% |
| 22.2% 6th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 27th 58.3% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 24th 33.3% |
| 33.3% 4th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 12th 66.7% |
| 5.6% 3rd | Pressure rate allowed | 28th 27.6% |
| 27.6% 3rd | Pressure rate | 28th 5.6% |
| 11.1% 15th | Turnover rate | 25th 20.0% |
| 20.0% 5th | Takeaway rate | 16th 11.1% |
| 27.0 12th | Points per game | 30th 7.0 |
| 7.0 3rd | Points allowed per game | 19th 27.0 |
| +5.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – −14.8% |
| 32.7 24th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 22nd 31.8 |
| +0.190 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.226 |
| −0.226 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.190 |
| −0.7 25th | Special teams EPA | 20th +0.1 |
SF offense vs LA defense
Offense percentiles for SF against the matching defensive percentiles for LA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
SFLA D
LA offense vs SF defense
Offense percentiles for LA against the matching defensive percentiles for SF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LASF D