Week 1 · Final · SoFi Stadium (dome)
Model
Projected ARI 25.8 – LAC 19.6
margin −6.2 · total 45.4
Market
LAC -8.5 · O/U 47.5
implied ARI 19.5 – LAC 28.0
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−14.7
ARI side of the number
Total edge
−2.1
leans under
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| ARI | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.9 4th | Power rating | 29th −3.9 |
| +1.6 8th | Offense rating | 25th −2.3 |
| +2.3 8th | Defense rating | 25th −1.6 |
| +0.139 8th | Offense EPA/play | 23rd −0.167 |
| −0.167 8th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 23rd +0.139 |
| 48.6% 6th | Offense success rate | 23rd 40.0% |
| 40.0% 8th | Defense success rate allowed | 25th 48.6% |
| +0.270 8th | Pass EPA/dropback | 22nd −0.087 |
| −0.087 9th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 23rd +0.270 |
| −0.044 10th | Rush EPA/carry | 27th −0.360 |
| −0.360 4th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 21st −0.044 |
| 5.6% 23rd | Explosive play rate | 24th 5.5% |
| 5.5% 7th | Explosive rate allowed | 8th 5.6% |
| 46.2% 10th | 3rd-down conversion | 22nd 25.0% |
| 25.0% 7th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 21st 46.2% |
| 40.0% 22nd | Red-zone TD rate | 15th 66.7% |
| 66.7% 12th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 12.8% 12th | Pressure rate allowed | 9th 11.4% |
| 11.4% 22nd | Pressure rate | 19th 12.8% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 25th 20.0% |
| 20.0% 5th | Takeaway rate | 23rd 0.0% |
| 26.0 15th | Points per game | 23rd 14.0 |
| 14.0 10th | Points allowed per game | 18th 26.0 |
| −0.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – +0.3% |
| 30.5 16th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 15th 29.9 |
| +0.139 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.167 |
| −0.167 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.139 |
| −3.9 30th | Special teams EPA | 31st −4.3 |
ARI offense vs LAC defense
Offense percentiles for ARI against the matching defensive percentiles for LAC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ARILAC D
LAC offense vs ARI defense
Offense percentiles for LAC against the matching defensive percentiles for ARI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LACARI D