Week 1 · Final · EverBank Stadium
Model
Projected CLE 17.1 – JAX 31.6
margin +14.5 · total 48.8
Market
JAX -8.5 · O/U 40.5
implied CLE 16.0 – JAX 24.5
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
+6.0
JAX side of the number
Total edge
+8.3
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CLE | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| −6.5 32nd | Power rating | 1st +6.5 |
| −2.8 27th | Offense rating | 3rd +3.7 |
| −3.7 30th | Defense rating | 6th +2.8 |
| −0.206 25th | Offense EPA/play | 3rd +0.310 |
| +0.310 28th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 6th −0.206 |
| 43.1% 17th | Offense success rate | 1st 59.3% |
| 59.3% 30th | Defense success rate allowed | 14th 43.1% |
| −0.257 27th | Pass EPA/dropback | 1st +0.731 |
| +0.731 30th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 4th −0.257 |
| −0.119 20th | Rush EPA/carry | 12th −0.053 |
| −0.053 19th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 11th −0.119 |
| 7.8% 17th | Explosive play rate | 1st 16.7% |
| 16.7% 30th | Explosive rate allowed | 14th 7.8% |
| 12.5% 30th | 3rd-down conversion | 7th 55.6% |
| 55.6% 24th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 1st 12.5% |
| 0.0% 28th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 100.0% 21st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 30.0% 29th | Pressure rate allowed | 11th 12.5% |
| 12.5% 20th | Pressure rate | 2nd 30.0% |
| 22.2% 28th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 23rd | Takeaway rate | 3rd 22.2% |
| 10.0 27th | Points per game | 6th 34.0 |
| 34.0 27th | Points allowed per game | 4th 10.0 |
| −9.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.3% |
| 38.8 30th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 13th 29.4 |
| −0.206 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.310 |
| +0.310 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.206 |
| +6.1 2nd | Special teams EPA | 13th +3.0 |
CLE offense vs JAX defense
Offense percentiles for CLE against the matching defensive percentiles for JAX. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CLEJAX D
JAX offense vs CLE defense
Offense percentiles for JAX against the matching defensive percentiles for CLE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
JAXCLE D