Week 1 · Final · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Denver Broncos0-1 · −6.2 power
1031
KC -2.5 · O/U 42.5 · Division game ESPNABC
Kansas City Chiefs1-0 · +6.2 power
Model
Projected DEN 14.3 – KC 28.3
margin +14.0 · total 42.6
Market
KC -2.5 · O/U 42.5
implied DEN 20.0 – KC 22.5
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
+11.5
KC side of the number
Total edge
+0.1
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| DEN | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| −6.2 31st | Power rating | 2nd +6.2 |
| −4.8 32nd | Offense rating | 11th +1.4 |
| −1.4 22nd | Defense rating | 1st +4.8 |
| −0.378 32nd | Offense EPA/play | 11th +0.118 |
| +0.118 22nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 1st −0.378 |
| 36.0% 29th | Offense success rate | 22nd 40.9% |
| 40.9% 11th | Defense success rate allowed | 4th 36.0% |
| −0.442 31st | Pass EPA/dropback | 20th −0.014 |
| −0.014 13th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 2nd −0.442 |
| −0.228 26th | Rush EPA/carry | 1st +0.259 |
| +0.259 32nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 7th −0.228 |
| 2.0% 30th | Explosive play rate | 15th 9.1% |
| 9.1% 18th | Explosive rate allowed | 3rd 2.0% |
| 16.7% 30th | 3rd-down conversion | 7th 56.3% |
| 56.3% 26th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 19th 60.0% |
| 60.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 21.2% 25th | Pressure rate allowed | 16th 15.2% |
| 15.2% 15th | Pressure rate | 8th 21.2% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 14th 8.3% |
| 8.3% 19th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| +1.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +0.4% |
| 33.5 27th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 8th 27.6 |
| −0.378 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| +0.118 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| +3.6 10th | Special teams EPA | 13th +3.3 |
DEN offense vs KC defense
Offense percentiles for DEN against the matching defensive percentiles for KC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DENKC D
KC offense vs DEN defense
Offense percentiles for KC against the matching defensive percentiles for DEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
KCDEN D