Week 1 · Final (OT) · Ford Field (dome)
Model
Projected NO 24.3 – DET 24.7
margin +0.3 · total 49.0
Market
DET -7.0 · O/U 49.5
implied NO 21.3 – DET 28.3
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−6.7
NO side of the number
Total edge
−0.5
leans under
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NO | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.6 15th | Power rating | 18th −0.6 |
| +0.2 17th | Offense rating | 19th −0.4 |
| +0.4 14th | Defense rating | 16th −0.2 |
| +0.019 17th | Offense EPA/play | 19th −0.027 |
| −0.027 14th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 16th +0.019 |
| 43.8% 15th | Offense success rate | 13th 45.5% |
| 45.5% 20th | Defense success rate allowed | 18th 43.8% |
| +0.052 17th | Pass EPA/dropback | 19th +0.012 |
| +0.012 14th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 16th +0.052 |
| −0.075 15th | Rush EPA/carry | 14th −0.072 |
| −0.072 19th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 18th −0.075 |
| 9.0% 16th | Explosive play rate | 11th 10.4% |
| 10.4% 22nd | Explosive rate allowed | 17th 9.0% |
| 47.1% 10th | 3rd-down conversion | 16th 38.5% |
| 38.5% 17th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 23rd 47.1% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 24th 19.5% |
| 19.5% 9th | Pressure rate | 18th 14.3% |
| 21.4% 29th | Turnover rate | 9th 6.7% |
| 6.7% 24th | Takeaway rate | 4th 21.4% |
| 30.0 11th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 22nd 30.0 |
| +4.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – −2.4% |
| 21.6 2nd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 20th 31.1 |
| +0.019 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.027 |
| −0.027 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.019 |
| −2.4 29th | Special teams EPA | 23rd +0.1 |
NO offense vs DET defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for DET. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NODET D
DET offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for DET against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DETNO D