Week 1 · Final · Reliant Stadium (closed)
Model
Projected BUF 30.8 – HOU 27.1
margin −3.7 · total 58.0
Market
BUF -1.5 · O/U 44.5
implied BUF 23.0 – HOU 21.5
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
−2.2
BUF side of the number
Total edge
+13.5
leans over
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BUF | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 10th | Power rating | 23rd −2.6 |
| +3.4 4th | Offense rating | 13th +0.8 |
| −0.8 20th | Defense rating | 29th −3.4 |
| +0.278 4th | Offense EPA/play | 13th +0.071 |
| +0.071 20th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 29th +0.278 |
| 41.1% 21st | Offense success rate | 9th 48.1% |
| 48.1% 24th | Defense success rate allowed | 12th 41.1% |
| +0.556 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 16th +0.098 |
| +0.098 17th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 30th +0.556 |
| −0.263 28th | Rush EPA/carry | 9th +0.030 |
| +0.030 24th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 5th −0.263 |
| 14.3% 2nd | Explosive play rate | 17th 8.9% |
| 8.9% 16th | Explosive rate allowed | 31st 14.3% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 13th 43.8% |
| 43.8% 20th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 9.1% 7th | Pressure rate allowed | 26th 21.4% |
| 21.4% 7th | Pressure rate | 26th 9.1% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 36.0 5th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 28th 36.0 |
| +3.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.8% |
| 28.0 9th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 21st 31.1 |
| +0.278 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| +4.4 7th | Special teams EPA | 9th +4.3 |
BUF offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFHOU D
HOU offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUBUF D