Week 1 · Final · Paycor Stadium
Model
Projected TB 20.3 – CIN 23.9
margin +3.6 · total 44.1
Market
CIN -3.5 · O/U 50.5
implied TB 23.5 – CIN 27.0
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
+0.1
CIN side of the number
Total edge
−6.4
leans under
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| TB | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.0 20th | Power rating | 13th +1.0 |
| −1.2 22nd | Offense rating | 19th −0.2 |
| +0.2 14th | Defense rating | 11th +1.2 |
| −0.081 20th | Offense EPA/play | 17th +0.001 |
| +0.001 14th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 11th −0.081 |
| 51.8% 5th | Offense success rate | 10th 47.6% |
| 47.6% 21st | Defense success rate allowed | 26th 51.8% |
| −0.168 24th | Pass EPA/dropback | 20th −0.030 |
| −0.030 11th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 7th −0.168 |
| +0.118 3rd | Rush EPA/carry | 7th +0.050 |
| +0.050 24th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 28th +0.118 |
| 5.4% 25th | Explosive play rate | 7th 11.1% |
| 11.1% 24th | Explosive rate allowed | 6th 5.4% |
| 50.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion | 5th 57.1% |
| 57.1% 25th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 23rd 50.0% |
| 50.0% 19th | Red-zone TD rate | 22nd 40.0% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 16.7% 21st | Pressure rate allowed | 20th 16.2% |
| 16.2% 11th | Pressure rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 40.0% 30th | Turnover rate | 14th 10.0% |
| 10.0% 17th | Takeaway rate | 1st 40.0% |
| 27.0 12th | Points per game | 7th 33.0 |
| 33.0 26th | Points allowed per game | 19th 27.0 |
| +2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.7% |
| 29.8 14th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 3rd 23.1 |
| −0.081 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| +0.001 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| +5.2 4th | Special teams EPA | 3rd +5.6 |
TB offense vs CIN defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for CIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBCIN D
CIN offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for CIN against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CINTB D